Scenario Planning & Decision Package
Robust actions, decision triggers, and contingent responses for board-level strategy
Strategic Actions
Robust Actions — Execute Regardless of Scenario
RA01
Build Permanent Regulatory Intelligence Capability
- Designate board-level regulatory monitoring
- Track FIRB reform, SOCI amendments, export controls as standing agenda item
- Map activities that could enter “national interest” frame
- Subscribe to PC regulatory burden data
Evidence: FL01 — regulatory ratchet operates in all scenarios; STTF p.4 — 120 Acts mention “national interest”
RA02
Map and Diversify Critical Minerals Supply Chain Exposure
- Audit Chinese mineral processing dependence
- Identify MSP network alternatives
- Assess indirect mineral inputs
- Evaluate government co-investment programs ($1.2B Strategic Reserve)
Evidence: FL03 — minerals paradox across all quadrants; D02 — accelerating velocity; 54 of 181 events (30%)
RA03
Engage Constructively with FIRB Reform Process
- Submit to FIRB framework reform discussion paper
- Document processing delays and compliance costs
- Engage directly with Treasury and FIRB
- Support risk-based tiered screening advocacy
- Monitor FIRB processing time data
Evidence: Event #98 — Front Door policy; D05 — FDI framework evolution
RA04
Assess AUKUS Supply Chain Compatibility
- Review Defence Trade Controls exposure
- Assess security clearance requirements
- Identify AUKUS Pillar II technology areas
- Build prime contractor relationships
- Assess whether suppliers have AUKUS obligations
Evidence: TP03 — alliance lock-in; Events #50, #95, #152, #172
RA05
Prepare for AI Governance as Next Regulatory Frontier
- Monitor AI governance post AI Impact Summit (Event #171)
- Assess AI use and supply chain
- Review AI contractual terms
- Prepare for sector-specific AI regulation
- Consider board-level AI governance proactively
Evidence: CC03 — nested expansion model; Events #171, #177; SI04
Early Warning System
Decision Triggers — 7 Tripwires
TW01
Weekly
China extends export controls to all rare earth elements
TP02 crossed. Q4 probability increases sharply, Q1 collapses.
Immediate supply chain review. Accelerate alternative sourcing.
TW02
Quarterly
FIRB framework reform produces >20% reduction in median processing times
Openness pole gaining traction. Q1/Q3 probability increases, Q2 decreases.
Accelerate pending investment proposals. Review FDI pipeline.
TW03
Monthly
AUKUS submarine construction formally commences (steel cut / keel laying)
TP03 approached/crossed. Alliance lock-in deepens across all scenarios.
Finalise supply chain positioning for multi-decade cycle. Assess export control obligations.
TW04
Quarterly
Productivity Commission recommendations adopted by government
Openness pole gaining traction. Q1 increases, Q2 decreases.
Position for regulatory reform. Early compliance creates first-mover advantage.
TW05
Ongoing
Major foreign investor publicly cites regulatory burden for withdrawal
TP01 crossed. May trigger political counter-reaction OR confirm Q2/Q4.
Assess if isolated or pattern. Prepare for either reform acceleration or jurisdiction migration.
TW06
Monthly
New legislation expanding SOCI / national interest to AI, quantum, space, or biotech
CC03 nested expansion continues. Q4 trajectory confirmed.
Immediate exposure assessment in newly designated domain. Begin compliance framework.
TW07
Weekly
US-China announce diplomatic framework, trade agreement, or tariff rollback
De-escalation pole strengthens. Q1 increases significantly, Q4 decreases.
Prepare for China commercial re-engagement. Review supply chain recalibration. Maintain hedged position.
Conditional Responses
Contingent Actions — Scenario-Triggered
CA01
Accelerate Security Compliance and Defence Positioning
Trigger: Q4 materialises, or Q3 slides toward Q4
- Expand SOCI compliance before deadline
- Pursue defence procurement opportunities
- Restructure supply chains away from Chinese minerals dependence
- Increase security clearances across relevant personnel
- Budget for higher compliance costs as permanent line item
CA02
Position Early for FDI Opportunities
Trigger: Q1 or Q3 indicators strengthen
- Accelerate delayed foreign investment proposals
- Explore returning Chinese investor opportunities
- Re-engage with deterred markets and partners
- Shift from compliance to transaction structuring advisory
CA03
Invest in Dual Compliance Architecture
Trigger: Q3 indicators — simultaneous intensification and openness signals
- Build separate security-adjacent and commercial compliance tracks
- Leverage middle power network for diversification
- Position as “safe place to do business in Western alliance”
- Invest in critical minerals / clean energy alignment
CA04
Intensify Advocacy for Proportionate Regulation
Trigger: Q2 indicators — de-escalation without deregulation
- Use PC data as evidence base for reform advocacy
- Form industry coalitions (50+ CISOs model)
- Explore state-level regulatory arbitrage
- Monitor competitor jurisdictions for benchmarking
- Build micro-level compliance cost evidence
CA05
Activate Crisis Contingency
Trigger: Any wildcard event materialises
- Board-level emergency review within 48 hours
- Expect crisis-driven regulatory expansion (COVID zero-threshold precedent)
- Pre-position legal and compliance resources
- Review single-source supply chain vulnerabilities
- For Taiwan scenario: assess Taiwan-exposure specifically
Critical Warnings
What NOT to Do
1.
Assume de-escalation is coming — structural dynamics bias toward securitisation
2.
Wait for regulatory clarity — the landscape will not stabilise within the decision horizon
3.
Treat compliance as temporary cost — it is a permanent strategic investment
4.
Ignore state-level regulatory variation — jurisdiction choice within Australia matters
5.
Plan for one scenario to exclusion of others — maintain optionality across quadrants
Executive Summary
Board Priority Ranking
1
Regulatory intelligence as permanent strategic function
Robust
2
Critical minerals supply chain audit and diversification
Robust
3
AUKUS supply chain compatibility assessment
Robust
4
FIRB reform engagement
Robust
5
Contingency planning for Q4
Contingent